Stop, Drop and Roll

30 October 2008 | Election 2008 | John Knox White

Measure P…been hearing from a lot of people who, at the last minute are holding their noses and pulling the lever for P (okay, drawing the line for P, it was more fun when it was a lever).

So today’s food for thought: There’s this really fun narrative about all the waste in the city’s administration and attorney’s offoce that should be cut instead of Measure P. So we ran the numbers for the last five years (including 2008’s proposed budget) and adjusted them for inflation. (Also, check out the 2008 Election Survey below the fold).

City expenditures by year, by department, adjusted for inflation (2008 dollars):

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	Change since 2004
General Govt	$2,598	$2,745	$2,824	$2,520	$2,670	2.7%
Public Safety	$45,501	$45,581	$50,946	$51,255	$51,935	12.4%
Planning/Bldg	$3,365	$4,325	$3,355	$3,677	$4,345	22.6%
Admin Svcs	$4,250	$4,276	$4,231	$4,376	$4,410	3.6%
Culture/Rec	$5,862	$5,654	$5,596	$5,482	$5,740	-2.1%
PW	$6,983	$6,834	$6,265	$6,577	$7,655	8.8%
Other	$2,322	$1,718	$2,633	$2,268	$2,180	-6.5%
Break out of Gen. Govt
City Mgr	$1,122	$1,125	$1,115	$1,059	$1,160	3.3%
City Attorney	$986	$1,054	$1,200	$885	$940	-4.9%

The first thing you’ll notice is that the city could get rid of the entire City Manager and City Attorney departments and still have $2 million left to cut (out of $4 million). Also, other includes debt servicing and transfers to the capital improvements account.

I believe (and will confirm and report back) that Planning and Bldg. actually pay for themselves through fees. I’ll also see if I can find out what the 22% increase has been.

If anyone is curious as to why public safety is discussed so often, check out the 12% increase in the departments that use 65+% of the entire general fund. As this rise happened while the Police Department saw a decrease of 8 staff (3 of them sworn officers) and the Fire Department saw a decrease of 9 staff (all of them sworn). It’s all about the Benjamins, if by Benjamins you are using the wrong term to refer to public safety retirement benefits.

So when you pull the lever for Measure P, there isn’t really anywhere for the city to go but public safety reductions, despite what some folks would like you to believe.

More Election Recommendations on the 2008 Election Page. 

And now the Election Survey.

With 20 Entries, here are this mornings 2008 Election Survey Results (if you haven’t already, take 2 minutes to fill out the survey of who you think will win (not who you want to win):

Question 1: How will be elected to the council
	First Choice	Second Choice
Marie Gilmore	75.0% (15)	25.0% (5)	20
Doug deHaan	28.6% (4)	71.4% (10)	14
Tracy Jensen	25.0% (1)	75.0% (3)	4
Justin Harrison	0.0% (0)	100.0% (1)	1
Question 2. Who will win the Alameda School Board Race? (Pick Three)
	First Choice	Second Choice	Third Choice
David Forbes	66.7% (12)	11.1% (2)	22.2% (4)	18
Janet Gibson	15.4% (2)	69.2% (9)	15.4% (2)	13
Neil Tam	16.7% (2)	41.7% (5)	41.7% (5)	12
Ron Mooney	30.0% (3)	30.0% (3)	40.0% (4)	10
Trish Spencer	0.0% (0)	25.0% (1)	75.0% (3)	4
3. Will Measure P Pass?
Yes	5	25%
No	15	75%
4. Will the Charter Amendments (Measure Q-X) pass?
All of them will	12	60%
Some of them Will	6	30%
None of them Will	2	10%

The list of Upsets in this election cycle: 

1. McCain beats Obama by 3 electoral votes but loses popular vote

2. McCain wins.

3. McCain doesn’t carry OH, PA, or FL

4. Prop 8 Passes

5. Prop 11 will win

6. Prop 2 loses

7. National

8. If it’s McCain/Palin, I’m moving to Sweden

9. obama wins arizona

10. Dems get 60 seats in US Senate

11. Prop 4 passes after 4 tries

Popularity: 7% [?]